以消解发展不平衡不充分为最终目的,测算2020年全国文化投入预期增长目标:按照2000~2018年平均增速“自然增长”,可达到4653。33亿元;实现产值—财政支出—教科文卫综合投入—文化投入历年各项最佳比值“应然增长”,应达到9488。58亿元;进而实现文化投入与消费同构占比平衡“民生增长”,应达到9427。70亿元;最终实现文化投入各地人均值均等化“理想增长”,将达到23065。29亿元。以到2020年所需年均增长率衡量各类增长目标距离,分别测算各省域排行:海南、北京、上海、内蒙古、西藏排在最佳比值增长目标前5位,北京、青海、海南、内蒙古、甘肃排在同构占比增长目标前5位,西藏、北京、上海、青海、海南排在均等化增长目标前5位。
<<With the ultimate goal of resolving the unbalanced and inadequate development,the expected growth target of the countrywide culture investment to 2020 are estimated as follows:Based upon the average growth rate of “natural growth” from 2000 to 2018,the expected target of the countrywide culture investment should be 465.333 billion yuan;if it should get the ought-to-be growth at the best ratio over the years in terms of the productive value,the fiscal expenditure,the E.S.C.H.(education,science & technology,culture,health)input and the culture investment,it would reach 948.858 billion yuan;if the balanced isomorphism proportion of culture investment and consumption should come true,it would reach 942.770 billion yuan;if the ideal growth of the equal culture investment should realize,it would reach 2306.529 billion yuan. By using the required annual growth rate to 2020 to measure the gap of all kinds of growth target respectively,the rankings of the various provinces are as follows:Hainan,Beijing,Shanghai,Inner Mongolia and Tibet rank top five in the growth target of best ratio;Beijing,Qinghai,Hainan,Inner Mongolia and Gansu rank top five in the growth target of isomorphism proportion;Tibet,Beijing,Shanghai,Qinghai and Hainan rank top five in the growth target of equalization.
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