2011年以来,我国房地产市场出现三轮周期性波动,全国主要城市房价交替上涨,防范化解房地产市场风险成为政府工作的重要内容。报告从区域和城市群两个视角出发,研究我国70个大中城市房价联动变化情况,结论表明:(1)东部地区中一线城市和二线热点城市房价联系紧密;(2)中部地区的郑州、武汉、长沙、南昌之间构成了相对紧密的房价联动变化网络;(3)西部地区城市房价的相关系数多数位于0。50~0。70,昆明与西部地区其他二线城市房价相关性普遍较强;(4)东北地区形成以沈阳为核心的房价关联网络;(5)长江中游城市群与其他城市群房价的相关性普遍较高,城市群房价关联程度受到经济因素和区位因素的双重影响。最后,基于以上分析,报告提出稳定我国城市房地产市场的若干建议。
<<Since 2011,there have been three rounds of cyclical fluctuation in China’s real estate market,and housing prices in major cities have risen alternately. It has become an important part of the government’s work to prevent and resolve the risks in the real estate market. From the perspective of region and urban agglomeration,the report studies the housing prices correlation in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China. The conclusion shows that:(1)the housing prices of the first tier cities and the second tier hot cities in the eastern region are closely related;(2)Zhengzhou,Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang in the central region constitute a relatively close network of housing prices correlation;(3)most of the correlation coefficients of urban housing prices in the western region are in the range of 0.50-0.70,and Kunming is generally highly correlated with other second tier cities in the western region;(4)the northeast region forms a housing prices related network with Shenyang as the core;(5)The housing prices correlation between urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and other urban agglomerations are generally high,and the housing prices of urban agglomerations are affected by economic factors and location factors. Finally,based on the above analysis,the report puts forward some suggestions to stabilize China’s urban real estate market.
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