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    2019年长三角城市群房地产市场总结及2020年展望

    摘要

    2019年是长江三角洲区域一体化快速发展的一年,为房地产市场发展注入了活力。全年主要城市房地产市场呈现不断恢复的态势,多数一、二线城市住房成交量上升,价格企稳。城市群的住房价格涟漪效应明显,价格主要由二线城市带动,合肥、嘉兴、苏州、温州和无锡等城市对周边城市房价的影响较大。土地市场交易量放大,后期住房供应有望增加。上海住房租赁市场经历了调整,租金水平出现下跌。主要城市的房地产市场调控政策不断加大力度,但部分城市对人才的住房支持政策同时增强。预计2020年长三角房地产市场总体平稳发展,经济增长不确定性影响相对较小,但三、四线城市房地产市场出现冷热分化的概率加大。

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    Abstract

    2019 is a year of rapid development of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta,which has injected vitality into the development of the real estate market. In the whole year,the real estate market in major cities showed a trend of continuous recovery,with the volume of housing transactions in most first tier and second tier cities rising and prices stabilizing. The ripple effect of housing prices in urban agglomerations is obvious. Prices are mainly driven by second tier cities. Hefei,Jiaxing,Suzhou,Wenzhou,Wuxi and other cities have a greater impact on housing prices in surrounding cities. The transaction volume of land market is enlarged,and the housing supply is expected to increase in the later period. The rental market in Shanghai has experienced adjustment and the rental price has declined. The real estate market regulation and control policies in major cities began to increase,but the housing policies for talents in some cities also increased. It is predicted that the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta will develop steadily in 2020,and the uncertain impact of economic growth will be relatively small,but the probability of cold and hot differentiation of the real estate market in the third and fourth tier cities will increase.

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    作者简介
    崔光灿:崔光灿,上海师范大学房地产经济研究中心主任,研究方向:房地产经济与住房保障。
    黄静:黄静,上海师范大学房地产经济研究中心副主任,研究方向:房地产经济。
    祝梦迪:祝梦迪,上海师范大学商学院区域经济学研究生,研究方向:房地产经济。
    李晴:李晴,上海师范大学金融学研究生,研究方向:房地产金融。
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