2019年房地产开发投资增速保持高位,对固定资产投资增长的贡献率接近1/3。其中,住宅投资增速保持高位且小幅增加,商业营业用房投资继续负增长;西部地区房地产开发投资增速最快,东部地区投资增速下降;土地购置面积和成交价款均较大幅度下降,房企土地购置意愿处于历史低位。从融资状况来看,2019年房地产企业资金压力进一步加大;房地产企业资金来源增幅小幅增加,自筹资金融资收紧;房地产债券发行量小幅下降,信托融资额较快增加。展望2020年,宏观货币政策环境趋向宽松,房地产企业融资政策边际向好但难以大幅放松,房企仍然处于还债高峰时期,预计2020年房地产开发投资增速将降至4%左右。
<<The growth of real estate development investment kept increasing in 2019,and its contribute rate to the growth of fixed investment is approximately to 1/3. Among which,the growth of residential investment increased,while the commercial property investment decreased. The growth rate of real estate investment in the western regions increased,while it in the eastern regions decreased. The willingness of real estate developers’ land acquisition decreased to the historically low level. On the financing condition in 2019,the financial pressure of real estate developers further increased,the increase rate of financing fund was better than last year,while the financing polices tightened. The real estate bond insurance decreased gently,while the trust financing increased rapidly. Forecasting the influencing factors in 2020,the monetary policy environment would be better,the regulation of real estate financing would be relaxed marginally,while the developers’ debt pressure would increase. We estimated that the growth of real estate investment would decrease to about 4%.
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