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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2019年全国个人住房信贷市场分析及2020年展望

    摘要

    在中央“房住不炒”和“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”的政策背景下,个人住房信贷市场进入相对稳定状态。从总量来看,2019年底个人住房贷款余额规模为30。07万亿元,同比增速持续下降。从价格来看,2019年上半年全国个人住房贷款平均利率呈下降态势,但下半年受房地产调控政策影响又有所上升。从风险来看,虽然住户部门债务收入比上升较快,但受益于我国实施宏观审慎和差别化的住房信贷政策,新增个人住房贷款平均首付比例超过五成,抵御房价下跌风险的能力较强,个人住房贷款不良率较低,短期内房贷风险不构成对银行的显著影响。展望2020年,我们倾向于认为个人住房贷款余额增速依然保持平稳或者略有下降,房贷利率的实际平均水平将随5年期LPR的下降而略有下降。风险方面,我们预计个人住房贷款不良率以及新增LTV不会显著上升,而住房贷款收入比会延续2019年的情况继续小幅上升。

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    Abstract

    Under the policy background of “Housing is for living in,not for speculation” and “Not using real estate as a mean to stimulate the economy in short term”,the personal housing mortgage loan market has maintained a relatively stable state. From the perspective of total volume,the personal housing mortgage loans balance of financial institutions was 30.07 trillion yuan at the end of 2019,and the year-on-year growth rate of personal housing mortgage loans balance continued to decline. From the perspective of price,the average interest rates of personal housing mortgage loans showed a downward trend in the first half of 2019,but it rose again due to the influence of policies in the second half of 2019. From the perspective of risk,although the debt service-to-income ratio of the household sector is rising fasters,benefiting from the implementation of macro-prudential and diversified housing credit policy in China,the down payment ratio of the new housing loans is more than 50%,which means that the risk of housing loans is small. The personal housing mortgage loan non-performing rate is low,and the risk of personal housing mortgage loans does not have a significant impact on the banking systemin the short term. Looking forward to 2020,we tend to believe that the growth rate of personal housing mortgage loans balance in financial institutions will remain stable or slightly decline. And the real average level of personal housing mortgage loans interest rates will decline slightly with the decline of 5-year LPR. In terms of risks,we do not expect that the non-performing rate of personal housing loans and the new LTV will increase significantly. And the housing loan income ratio will continue to rise slightly as in 2019.

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    作者简介
    蔡真:蔡真,经济学博士,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心主任,高级研究员,中国社会科学院金融研究所金融实验室副主任,副研究员,研究方向:房地产金融、泡沫经济和结构金融。
    崔玉:崔玉,经济学硕士,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心研究员,研究方向:房地产金融。
    孙会亭:孙会亭,中国社会科学院研究生院金融系在读硕士生,研究方向:互联网金融、金融科技。
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