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    2019年中国商业不动产市场分析及2020年市场预测

    摘要

    2019年是商业不动产不易的一年,中美贸易摩擦对消费者信心带来压力,房地产行业资金环境紧张,商业不动产市场面临下行压力。购物中心市场趋于饱和,开业率再创新低。写字楼供过于求叠加宏观环境影响,空置率提高租金下行。酒店市场连锁型、有限服务型市场份额继续提升。公寓行业经历“寒冬”后继续整合。展望2020年,新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情将对商业不动产市场带来较大冲击和更大的不确定性。预计购物中心整体开业率和商铺开业率将出现大幅下滑;写字楼随国家刺激经济或将带来一定利好,但压力仍高企;酒店市场全年业绩大幅下滑,下沉市场将是新增长点;长租公寓行业集中度提高,继续探索更有效的盈利模式。

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    Abstract

    It was a rather difficult year for the commercial real estate industry in 2019. Consumer confidence was under some pressure due to the impact of theChina-U.S. trade conflict. The financial environment was intense and the commercial real estate industry was facing downward pressure. The shopping mall market became saturated and the opening rate hit a new low. Vacancy rate rose and rent fell down because of office buildings oversupplied and macro environment was soft. Hotel market,the type of chain and limited service,continued to increase their market share. After the “cold winter”,the apartment industry kept consolidating. Looking forward to 2020,the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus will bring a great shock on the domestic and foreign economies and the commercial real estate market,therefore,bring much more uncertainty. It is expected that the overall opening rate of shopping malls and stores decline significantly;The office market will be benefit from the economic stimulus policies,but the pressure is still high;The annual performance of the hotel markets might be declined sharply,and the sinking market will be a new growth driver;The concentration of long-term rental apartment industry will improve and keep exploring more effective profit model.

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    作者简介
    杨泽轩:杨泽轩,万商俱乐部创始人,研究方向:商业不动产。
    姜星狄:姜星狄,中城商业研究院研究总监兼首席分析师,研究方向:商业不动产。
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