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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年全国住宅市场形势分析及2020年预测

    摘要

    2019年中国商品住宅市场运行平稳,各项核心指标符合年初预测值。在建设环节,住宅新开工与竣工面积增速差缩小;在投资环节,住宅开发投资占房地产开发投资比重提高到73。4%;在销售环节,住宅销售均价上升2。4%。预测2020年住宅销售均价增长8%。住宅市场平稳对我国宏观经济的健康与安全具有重大战略意义,虽然新冠肺炎疫情对住宅市场带来巨大冲击,但住宅市场总体平稳态势未变。住宅产业只有与高新技术引领下的“新基建”相协调,与智能社区和智慧城市建设相结合,与超级城市群及中心城市建设相融合,才能走出高质量发展的新路。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,China’s commercial housing market operated smoothly,and all core indicators met the forecast value at the beginning of the year. In the construction sector,the growth gap between the newly started and completed residential areas has narrowed. In the investment sector,the proportion of residential investment in real estate development investment has increased to 73.4%. In the sales sector,the average price of residential sales has increased by 8.7%. It is predicted that the average price of residential sales will increase by 8% in 2020. The stability of the housing market is of great strategic significance to the health and safety of China’s macro-economy. Although the new crown epidemic has a huge impact on the housing market,the overall stable situation of the housing market remains unchanged. Only by coordinating with the “new infrastructure” under the guidance of high and new technology,combining with the construction of smart community and smart city,and integrating with the construction of super city group and central city,can the housing industry walk out of the new road of high-quality development.

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    作者简介
    张智:张智,天津社会科学院经济分析与预测研究所研究员,研究方向:宏观经济预测、房地产经济、城市经济。
    乌兰图雅:乌兰图雅,天津社会科学院东北亚研究所副研究员,博士,研究方向:国土空间规划、国别经济比较。
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