截至2020年5月初,全球疫情仍然有较大的不确定性。总体上,东亚主要国家的疫情处于收官阶段,欧洲大陆主要国家的疫情正处于控制状态但相对缓慢,北美国家疫情仍处于平台期且日新增病例数仍然较高,同时疫情在拉美、南亚、非洲等国家或地区正处于上升期。疫情在全球蔓延,将使2020年全球经济陷入负增长,这已经成为各方共识。2020年3月26日,G20首脑特别峰会召开,各国宣布将通过一揽子政策向全球经济注入5万亿美元,以应对疫情冲击。本文基于对G20国家尤其是对中国更有借鉴意义的德国政策进行梳理,以期有助于我们得到一些有益的启示。同时,本文也对全球疫情背景下中国经济可能受到的影响进行了判断,具体地,从出口需求、进口供应链、跨境资本流动和汇率等方面进行了评估。
<<up to the beginning of May 2020,the global epidemic situation is still uncertain. On the whole,the epidemic situation in the major countries in East Asia is in the final stage,the epidemic situation in the major countries in the European continent is under control,but the decline is relatively slow,the epidemic situation in the North America is still in the platform stage,and the number of new cases per day in the platform stage is still high,while the epidemic situation in Latin America,South Asia,Africa and other countries is in the rising stage. The spread of the epidemic in the world will make the global economy fall into negative growth in 2020,which has become the consensus of all parties. On March 26,2020,the G20 special summit was held,and countries announced a package of policies to inject $5 trillion into the global economy to cope with the impact of the epidemic. Based on the analysis of G20 countries,especially Germany’s policies which are more meaningful for China,this paper may help us to get some useful references. At the same time,this paper also looks forward to the possible impact on China’s economy in the context of the global epidemic. Specifically,we conducted an assessment from the aspects of export demand,import supply chain,cross-border capital flow and exchange rate.
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