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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    疫情冲击下中国数字经济的挑战机遇及“十四五”规模预测

    摘要

    1996年以来,中国数字经济年均增速高达15。7%,远高于同期GDP年均9。3%的增速,2019年增加值规模估计已超17万亿元,占GDP比重约为17。2%,成为中国经济增长的重要引擎,但数字经济发展质量仍有较大提升空间。疫情对中国数字经济发展带来多方面冲击,但数字化在抗击疫情中发挥的积极作用、政府主导的新基建布局等都孕育着“化危为机”的潜力,2020年以及“十四五”期间,中国数字经济快速发展的基本趋势不会改变。预计2020年中国数字经济规模有望达到19万亿元,占GDP比重将达到19%。到2025年,中国数字经济增加值规模将达到344291。9亿元(以2019年不变价计算)。未来应尽可能缓和中美关系,维持同美国、日本、欧盟、英国等主要发达经济体之间的科技和经贸交流合作,为疫情后中国数字经济发展争取国际空间。

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    Abstract

    since 1996,the average annual growth rate of China’s digital economy has reached 15.7%,which is far higher than the average annual growth rate of 9.3% of GDP in the same period. In 2019,the scale of added value is estimated to be over 17 trillion,accounting for about 17.2% of GDP. It has become an important engine of China’s economic growth,but there is still much room for improvement in the development quality of digital economy. The epidemic has brought many impacts on the development of China’s digital economy. However,the positive role of digitalization in the fight against the epidemic,the new infrastructure layout led by the government and so on all breed the potential of “Turning Crisis into opportunity”. This year and during the 14th five year plan,the basic trend of China’s rapid development of the digital economy will not change. It is expected that the scale of China’s digital economy will reach 19 trillionyuan in 2020,accounting for 19% of GDP. By 2025,the added value scale of China’s digital economy will reach 34429.19 billion yuan (based on the constant price in 2019). In the future,we should try our best to ease Sino US relations,maintain scientific and trade exchanges and cooperation with major developed economies such as the United States,Japan,the European Union and the United Kingdom,and strive for international space for the development of China’s digital economy after the outbreak.

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    作者简介
    蔡跃洲:蔡跃洲,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所研究员。
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