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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    突发公共卫生危机对经济的影响:逻辑与预测

    摘要

    2020年伊始,突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情给全球经济、社会、生活带来了巨大影响。尽管此次重大突发公共卫生危机已经成为当今世界经济增长的最大威胁,但传染病危机仍是全球安全框架中一个被忽视的层面。我们不仅对疫情带来的不确定性缺乏必要的应对方案和有效的预警机制,也缺乏对其造成的经济风险的科学评估和判断能力,甚至至今仍然没有主流的经济增长模型正式将突发传染病危机纳入考虑。疫情的蔓延,更加凸显世界各国在应对突发公共卫生危机时的困难和不足,也暴露了各国经济系统中的短板和结构性问题。本文基于历史并综合国内外形势,对突发公共卫生危机的影响逻辑进行判断,并对经济的发展形势作出预测。

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    Abstract

    at the beginning of 2020,the sudden new crown epidemic has brought great impact on the global economy,society and life. Although the major public health crisis has become the biggest threat to the world economic growth,the infectiousdisease crisis is still a neglected aspect of the global security framework. We are not only lack of necessary response plan and effective early warning mechanism for the uncertainty brought about by the epidemic,but also lack of scientific assessment and judgment ability for the economic risks caused by it. Even up to now,there is still no mainstream economic growth model to take the sudden infectious disease crisis into formal consideration. With the development of the epidemic situation and the promotion of national prevention and control measures,it has become more and more obvious that coping with the public health crisis is the difficulty and shortage faced by all countries in the world,and also exposed the short board and structural problems in the economic system of all countries. In this paper,the influence logic of public health crisis is judged and the development situation of economy is predicted.

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    作者简介
    陈秋霖:
    谈佳辉:
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