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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年一季度工业运行分析及全年工业预测展望

    摘要

    受新冠肺炎疫情影响,2020年第一季度中国经济增速出现了下跌。当前经济发展中,有利因素方面,医疗防疫、生活必需品和基础物资产品较快增长,疫情防控和经济社会平稳运行得到有力保障,高技术和装备制造业生产回升明显,新兴产品持续较快增长。不利因素方面,全球疫情蔓延,制造业受第三波冲击。企业效益持续下降影响投资信心。随着我国疫情得到有效控制,2020年3月以来复工复产率快速提高,经济下行幅度明显收窄,经济向好趋势明显。应进一步推动复工复产,解决“断点、堵点、卡点”,并制定应对国际供应链中断的预案。

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    Abstract

    affected by the new crown epidemic,China’s economic operation declined in the first quarter of 2020. In terms of current favorable factors for economic development,the rapid growth of medical epidemic prevention,necessities and basic materials and products,the strong guarantee of epidemic prevention and control and stable economic and social operation,the obvious recovery of production in high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry,and the sustained and rapid growth of emerging products. In terms of adverse factors,the global spread of the epidemic situation expanded,and the manufacturing industry suffered the third wave of shocks. The continuous decline of enterprise benefit affects investment confidence. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China,the rate of return to work and production has increased rapidly since March 2020,the downward trend of the economy has been narrowed obviously,and the economic situation has been getting better. At the same time,we should further promote the resumption of work and production,solve “breakpoints,blocking points,and sticking points”,and formulate plans to deal with the interruption of the international supply chain.

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    作者简介
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