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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年物价运行特点回顾及2020年分析展望

    摘要

    2019年,全国CPI总体呈上行趋势,仍处温和区间,PPI涨幅前高后低,在翘尾因素回落、新涨价因素低位运行的共同作用下再次进入负值区间。2020年,在新冠疫情防控和宏观经济政策的综合影响下,全球经济快速衰退,大宗商品需求回落,价格下降。价格不同领域的影响呈结构性差异。疫情干扰猪周期,猪肉价格拐点或有所延后。部分国家收紧粮食出口,我国部分农产品价格趋涨,但总体仍有条件保持稳定。结合翘尾因素,预计全年CPI涨幅将进一步扩大至3。5%,PPI延续弱势运行走势,跌幅扩大至1。2%。

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    Abstract

    in 2019,China’s CPI showed an overall upward trend,still in a moderate range,with PPI rising high before and low after,and once again entered a negative range under the combined action of tail raising factors falling and new price rising factors running low. In 2020,under the comprehensive influence of the new crown epidemic prevention and control and macroeconomic policies,the global economy is rapidly declining,the demand for bulk commodities is falling,and the price is falling. The influence of different areas of price is structural difference. The epidemic interferes with the pig cycle,and the inflection point of pork price may be delayed. Some countries have tightened their grain exports,and the prices of some agricultural products in China have increased,but there are still conditions to maintain stability in general. Combined with tail raising factors,it is expected that CPI growth will further expand to 3.5% in the whole year,and PPI will continue the weak trend of operation,with the decline expanding to 1.2%.

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    作者简介
    郭路:
    马敏:
    陈玉新:
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