煤炭资源的有效开采和矿区环境保护是中国实行可持续发展战略的重要内容,也是推进工业化和城镇化过程中需要重点考虑的问题。作为一种可耗竭资源,煤炭开采必须遵循环境保护、代际公平和高效利用的原则。在当前经济结构调整、矿区环境灾害频发以及替代新能源还未真正发挥作用的情况下,寻求煤炭资源最优消耗路径对于经济的可持续增长显得尤为重要。在分析了煤炭需求与产量增长极限之后,本章将进一步研究中国煤炭资源消耗方式是否合理,是否为最优消耗路径,或与最优消耗路径的偏离程度。下面从社会效用最大化的角度,参考Hotelling可耗竭资源理论及最优消耗的“黄金法则”,建立最优控制模型,研究中国煤炭资源的最优消耗时间路径,并将煤炭实际消耗情况与最优消耗路径进行比较,以最优消耗路径作为煤炭需求的调控目标。
<<The effective exploitation of coal resources and the environmental protection of mining areas are the important contents of China's sustainable development strategy, and also the key issues to be considered in the process of industrialization and urbanization. As an exhaustible resource, coal mining must follow the principles of environmental protection, intergenerational equity and efficient utilization. In the current situation of economic restructuring, frequent environmental disasters in mining areas and alternative new energy has not really played a role, it is particularly important to find the optimal consumption path of coal resources for sustainable economic growth. After analyzing the growth limit of coal demand and output, this chapter will further study whether the consumption mode of coal resources in China is reasonable, whether it is the optimal consumption path, or the degree of deviation from the optimal consumption path. From the perspective of social utility maximization, referring to the theory of Hotelling exhaustible resources and the "golden rule" of optimal consumption, this paper establishes an optimal control model, studies the optimal consumption time path of China's coal resources, compares the actual consumption of coal with the optimal consumption path, and takes the optimal consumption path as the regulation target of coal demand.
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