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    中国煤炭需求增长极限及其调控

    摘要

    经济增速的下滑导致能源和煤炭需求增速下滑,但煤炭下滑速度更快,并于2014年出现微弱负增长。而从更深层次考察煤炭消费量下降的原因,则是随着中国经济由重化工业化阶段向工业化后期转型以及三次产业由“第二产业、第三产业、第一产业”结构向“第三产业、第二产业、第一产业”结构转型而导致国内能源和煤炭需求增速大幅下降,加上环保压力等因素而导致煤炭消费总量出现下降,煤炭行业由此进入了需求增速放缓、产能过剩和库存消化、环境制约及结构调整的“四期并存”发展阶段。从这一波煤炭需求增长周期来看,煤炭需求已经越过峰值,进入下降的阶段,那么是否可以认为,2013年的42。44亿吨标准煤就是煤炭需求的峰值、极限值?本章将借助一些经济理论和计量方法对这一问题进行系统的研究,同时还要分析推动煤炭需求的主要动力来自哪里?这些动力将会持续多久?中国国民经济系统究竟能承受多大的煤炭产需量?研究煤炭需求增长极限的另一个重要意义,它与本课题的主题——中国煤炭产量的增长极限密切相关。如果需求增长极限小于产量增长极限,且需求增长极限到来的时间早于产量增长极限,则煤炭供求形势较为乐观,如果相反,则形势较为严峻。本章的结果将与下一章进行比较对照。

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    Abstract

    The decline in economic growth led to a decline in the growth rate of energy and coal demand, but the decline in coal was faster, with a slight negative growth in 2014. The reason for the decline of coal consumption from a deeper level is that with the transformation of China's economy from the stage of heavy industrialization to the later stage of industrialization and the transformation of the three industries from the structure of "secondary industry, tertiary industry, primary industry" to the structure of "tertiary industry, secondary industry, primary industry", the growth rate of domestic energy and coal demand has declined significantly, coupled with environmental pressure As a result, the total consumption of coal has declined, and the coal industry has entered a "four stage co-existence" development stage of slowing demand growth, overcapacity and inventory digestion, environmental constraints and structural adjustment. From this growth cycle of coal demand, coal demand has passed the peak and entered the declining stage. Can we think that the 4.244 billion tons of standard coal in 2013 is the peak and limit value of coal demand? In this chapter, we will use some economic theories and measurement methods to study this problem systematically. At the same time, we will analyze the main driving force of coal demand? How long will these dynamics last? How much coal can China's national economic system bear? Another important significance of studying the growth limit of coal demand is closely related to the theme of this topic - the growth limit of China's coal output. If the demand growth limit is less than the output growth limit, and the arrival time of the demand growth limit is earlier than the output growth limit, the situation of coal supply and demand is more optimistic; if the opposite, the situation is more severe. The results of this chapter will be compared with those of the next chapter.

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    作者简介
    方行明:西南财经大学经济学院国民经济研究所所长,研究员、博士生(硕士生)导师,国家社会科学基金重点项目主持人,四川省突出贡献优秀专家,从事国民经济学、能源经济学、资源与环境经济学研究;学术领域包括理论研究和应用研究,注重理论与实践的结合;在Far Eastern Economic Review、Journal of Economic Issues、Energy等国际性核心学术刊物发表10多篇论文,在国内核心学术刊物,如《经济学家》、《中国农村经济》、《光明日报》(理论版)发表大量论文,独著或合著《中国重化工业发展研究》等10部专著。在学术研究上,敢于坚持真理、开展学术争鸣,特别是对行为经济学的伪科学性加以揭示。在学术研究的同时,积极投入社会服务,为地方政府提供发展战略与规划的研究,如主持宜宾市“十三五”规划课题,其中包括高县“十三五”工业经济发展规划和服务业发展规划等。
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