进入21世纪以来,中国经济增长速度自2007年达到14。16%的最高点以后,开始逐年下降。2012年中国经济增长率降至7。65%,2013年维持在7。7%,与2007年的最高点相比下滑了接近一半。这一增长下降的趋势引起了政府、社会各界甚至国际社会的广泛关注。这一趋势是否意味着中国经济将走向衰退?或像某些国外舆论渲染的那样即将“走向崩溃”?7%左右的增长率是否已经见底?未来中国经济增长潜力究竟如何?等等。这些问题既是当今中国经济发展所面临的问题,又与能源与煤炭的供求密切相关。在第二篇中我们分析了煤炭供求形势和煤炭消费与环境之间的关系,本章则针对中国经济增速下行的趋势分析未来中国经济的增长潜力,从而对中国未来数年能源和煤炭的需求有一个合理的预判,并且,对中国经济发展潜力的实证研究同时也可以回答或说明以上提出的问题。
<<Since entering the 21st century, China's economic growth rate has been decreasing year by year since it reached the highest point of 14.16% in 2007. China's economic growth rate fell to 7.65% in 2012 and remained at 7.7% in 2013, down nearly half from its peak in 2007. This trend of growth and decline has attracted extensive attention from the government, all sectors of society and even the international community. Does this trend mean that China's economy will go into recession? Or is it going to "collapse" as some foreign public opinions exaggerate? Has the growth rate of about 7% reached the bottom? What is China's economic growth potential in the future? Wait. These problems are not only the problems faced by China's economic development, but also closely related to the supply and demand of energy and coal. In the second part, we analyze the relationship between the supply and demand of coal and the relationship between coal consumption and environment. This chapter analyzes the growth potential of China's economy in the future based on the downward trend of China's economic growth, so as to have a reasonable prediction of China's energy and coal demand in the next few years. In addition, the empirical research on China's economic development potential can also answer or explain the above mentioned questions The problem.
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