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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    以能定口理论——对人口理论和增长极限理论的超越

    摘要

    关于人类危机的研究、理论和思想一直是来自国外的,国内的研究是在别国理论框架下进行的。而我们研究人类的危机,应该比西方国家的学者有更加深刻的认识。艰难坎坷的人生经历是思想的源泉,淘汰中的幸存则是我们对危机的深切感受。这些年来,笔者一直在思考,一直在探索,于繁荣中思危机,最终找出的灾难爆发点就聚焦在能源上;要出问题,最有可能出在能源上,它是资源与环境最为薄弱的环节。笔者对能源问题十分敏感,有着更加深刻、独特的理解(笔者生在一个从事能源工作的家庭,父亲是水电工人,而笔者的研究和工作也总是凑巧和能源问题搅和在一起),历史上粮食大饥荒的“以粮定口”法则很可能会在未来的能源大饥荒中以“以能定口”的形式再现。我国政府也是有着强烈的危机意识的,一直把粮食安全和能源安全放在国家安全的高度之上,常抓不懈(拥有一个有危机感的政府才是人民的福祉)。因此,本书要把问题的严酷性分析到位。

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    Abstract

    The research, theory and thought of human crisis have always come from abroad, and the domestic research is carried out under the theoretical framework of other countries. We should have a deeper understanding of human crisis than scholars in western countries. Hard and bumpy life experience is the source of thought, and survival in elimination is our deep feeling of crisis. Over the years, the author has been thinking and exploring, thinking about the crisis in prosperity, and the final disaster outbreak point is focused on energy; if there is a problem, it is most likely to come from energy, which is the weakest link of resources and environment. The author is very sensitive to energy issues and has a deeper and unique understanding (I was born in a family engaged in energy work, my father is a hydropower worker, and my research and work always happen to be mixed with energy issues). In the history of the food famine, the principle of "food to mouth" is likely to take the form of "energy to mouth" in the future energy famine Reappearance. Our government also has a strong sense of crisis. It has always put food security and energy security on the top of national security, and has always been unremitting (having a government with a sense of crisis is the well-being of the people). Therefore, the book should analyze the severity of the problem in place.

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    作者简介
    方行明:西南财经大学经济学院国民经济研究所所长,研究员、博士生(硕士生)导师,国家社会科学基金重点项目主持人,四川省突出贡献优秀专家,从事国民经济学、能源经济学、资源与环境经济学研究;学术领域包括理论研究和应用研究,注重理论与实践的结合;在Far Eastern Economic Review、Journal of Economic Issues、Energy等国际性核心学术刊物发表10多篇论文,在国内核心学术刊物,如《经济学家》、《中国农村经济》、《光明日报》(理论版)发表大量论文,独著或合著《中国重化工业发展研究》等10部专著。在学术研究上,敢于坚持真理、开展学术争鸣,特别是对行为经济学的伪科学性加以揭示。在学术研究的同时,积极投入社会服务,为地方政府提供发展战略与规划的研究,如主持宜宾市“十三五”规划课题,其中包括高县“十三五”工业经济发展规划和服务业发展规划等。
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