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    城镇化驱动潜在经济增长的政策研究

    摘要

    从“六五”到“十二五”期间,中国城镇化发展水平经历了较为滞后的“六五”及“七五”时期,在20世纪90年代逐步呈现城镇化发展水平的稳步发展建设,但是,第四章的实证数据说明,中国城镇化发展总体较为滞后,且区域城镇化发展水平差距较大。与此同时,对应的中国潜在经济增长率及区域潜在经济增长率虽然都有一定程度的波动变化,但是整体尚可。由第六章城镇化驱动潜在经济增长的实践而言,城镇化驱动中国潜在经济增长的正向作用是显著的,三十多年来中国劳动力数量充足、稳定,劳动力结构调整及质量的改善,较好地带动其他要素的流动,实现了累积及综合效应,为潜在经济增长做出重大贡献。但是,由于城镇化自身发展水平有限,且区域、省域城镇化发展不均衡,对潜在经济增长的要素驱动作用有待提高。总体来说,中国城镇化发展与潜在经济增长之间呈现三大不平衡:第一,以城镇化为最大体现的需求与以潜在经济增长为核心的供给之间的不平衡;第二,发展进程中城镇部门与农村部门之间的不平衡;第三,中国东中西各地区之间以及地区内部的不平衡。①基于此本章分析城镇化发展驱动潜在经济增长的影响因素,并探究城镇化驱动潜在经济增长的路径及政策建议。

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    Abstract

    From the "sixth five year plan" to the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, China's urbanization development level has experienced a relatively lagging "sixth five year plan" and "Seventh Five Year Plan" period. In the 1990s, it gradually presents the steady development and construction of urbanization development level. However, the empirical data in chapter four shows that China's urbanization development is generally lagging behind, and the regional urbanization development level gap is large. At the same time, the corresponding potential economic growth rate of China and regional potential economic growth rate have some fluctuations, but the overall is OK. In terms of the practice of urbanization driving potential economic growth in Chapter 6, the positive role of urbanization driving China's potential economic growth is significant. In the past three decades, China's labor force has been sufficient and stable, the labor force structure has been adjusted and the quality has been improved, the flow of other factors has been better driven, the cumulative and comprehensive effect has been realized, and the potential economic growth has made a significant contribution. However, due to the limited development level of urbanization itself and the unbalanced development of regional and provincial urbanization, the driving role of potential economic growth factors needs to be improved. Generally speaking, there are three major imbalances between the development of urbanization and the potential economic growth in China: first, the imbalance between the demand with urbanization as the maximum embodiment and the supply with potential economic growth as the core; second, the imbalance between the urban sector and the rural sector in the development process;Third, the imbalance between the East, the west, the East and the interior of the region. ① Based on this chapter, it analyzes the influencing factors of urbanization driving potential economic growth, and explores the path and policy recommendations of urbanization driving potential economic growth.

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    作者简介
    陈长:1972年生,祖籍湖南邵阳。2011年获上海财经大学理论经济学博士学位。现为贵州大学公共管理学院教授,数量经济学硕士生导师。主要从事宏微观理论经济学、计量经济学、城市经济学、生态经济学等方面的研究。先后在《上海经济研究》《江汉论坛》《江苏社会科学》《贵州社会科学》等刊物上发表数篇文章。2011年10月由经济管理出版社出版专著《物质与环境再生产关系的理论与实证研究》。近年来主持国家社科基金课题1项,民政部、国家统计局及省社科规划重大招标等省部级课题5项,获民政部课题结项一等奖,国家社科基金课题良好结题。
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