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    城镇化发展水平测度的指标体系构建及量化评价

    摘要

    基于潜在产出(或潜在经济增长率)视角下的城镇化发展水平测度以影响增长的劳动力要素为主线,围绕增长要素的累积效应、综合效应及城镇—农村两部门的作用途径展开,得出城镇化驱动潜在经济增长理论模型。然而,以劳动力流动为核心的城镇—农村部门的累积效应和综合效应的中国城镇化过程如何去刻画呢?可以通过构建城镇化发展水平的指标体系,把累积效应与综合效应内生于这一指标体系中。因此,中国城镇化发展水平的指标体系设计要以城镇化驱动中国潜在经济增长的理论模型为指导,不仅要体现出中国城镇化背景下劳动力迁移带来的人口数量和人口质量的变化,还要体现出劳动力迁移带来的其他要素的变化,并刻画出劳动力要素与其他要素共同作用下的累积效应和综合效应。选择合理的城镇化发展水平测度指标体系,能更好地体现出劳动力迁移带来的我国地域空间转变、产业结构演变、居民生活环境、居民生活质量以及民众意识与文化素质等的转变,充分展示城镇化驱动潜在经济增长的作用机理,有效体现城镇—农村两部门的有序、均衡流动。本章将围绕上述问题展开,并以全国各阶段、东中西各区域及各省份不同时段的城镇化水平测度为研究对象,应用主成分分析法分别进行实证研究。本章的数据结果将为后面进行“城镇化对中国潜在经济增长率影响的实证研究”奠定数据基础。

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    Abstract

    Based on the perspective of potential output (or potential economic growth rate), the measurement of urbanization development level focuses on the factors of labor that affect growth, focusing on the cumulative effect, comprehensive effect of growth factors and the role of urban-rural sectors, and obtains the theoretical model of urbanization driving potential economic growth. However, how to describe the process of urbanization in China with the cumulative and comprehensive effects of the urban-rural sector centered on labor mobility? We can build the indicator system of urbanization development level and endow the cumulative effect and comprehensive effect in this indicator system. Therefore, the index system design of China's urbanization development level should be guided by the theoretical model of urbanization driving China's potential economic growth. It should not only reflect the changes of population quantity and population quality brought about by labor migration in the context of China's urbanization, but also reflect the changes of other factors brought about by labor migration, and depict the joint work of labor and other factors Cumulative effect and comprehensive effect. Choosing a reasonable index system to measure the level of urbanization development can better reflect the changes of China's regional space, industrial structure, living environment, quality of life, people's consciousness and cultural quality brought about by labor migration, fully demonstrate the mechanism of urbanization driving potential economic growth, and effectively reflect the city -Orderly and balanced flow of rural two sectors. This chapter will focus on the above issues, and take the measurement of urbanization level in different stages of the country, the East, the west, the region and the provinces in different periods as the research object, using the principal component analysis method to carry out empirical research. The data results of this chapter will lay the data foundation for the later empirical research on the impact of urbanization on China's potential economic growth rate.

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    作者简介
    陈长:1972年生,祖籍湖南邵阳。2011年获上海财经大学理论经济学博士学位。现为贵州大学公共管理学院教授,数量经济学硕士生导师。主要从事宏微观理论经济学、计量经济学、城市经济学、生态经济学等方面的研究。先后在《上海经济研究》《江汉论坛》《江苏社会科学》《贵州社会科学》等刊物上发表数篇文章。2011年10月由经济管理出版社出版专著《物质与环境再生产关系的理论与实证研究》。近年来主持国家社科基金课题1项,民政部、国家统计局及省社科规划重大招标等省部级课题5项,获民政部课题结项一等奖,国家社科基金课题良好结题。
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