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    2009~2010年度澳门经济分析与预测

    摘要

    澳门作为一细小开放经济体,容易受外部环境冲击。2008年第四季度爆发的环球金融危机使澳门经济连续三季录得负增长。澳门的龙头产业博彩业严重受创,私人投资大幅下跌,服务及货物出口录得创纪录跌幅。2009年下半年环球经济状况渐趋稳定。澳门经济也回复正增长水平。2009年第三季度本地生产总值录得按年8。2%的增幅。然而各经济部门的复苏步伐不一,访澳旅客虽然回升,而博彩业明显反弹带动服务出口,但投资及货物出口则维持双位数跌幅。根据《澳门宏观经济模型》预测,2009年澳门经济将全年收缩3。6%。预计2010年澳门经济将全面复苏,全年增长可达9。2%。除货物出口以外,各部门可望回复正增幅。 <<
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    Abstract

    As a small open economy,Macau is vulnerable to the external economic condition.Since the outbreak of the global economic turmoil in the fourth quarter of 2008,Macau economy had recorded a negative growth for three consecutive quarters.The major driver of the economic growth,gaming industry,was seriously hit.Private investments dropped drastically and the exports of services and goods had recorded the largest decline ever.The global economy started to pick up in the second half of 2009.For the 3rd quarter of 2009,the GDP of Macau has reverted to a positive growth of 8.2% year-on-year.However,the paces of recovery were uneven in different sectors.Although the visitor arrivals increased and the significant rebound in the gaming sector pushed up the exports of services,the growth in investments and exports of goods remained a double-digit decline.According to the “Macroeconomic Model of Macau”,the annual GDP of Macau is forecast to shrink by 3.6% in 2009.The overall Macau economy is expected to revive more notably in 2010 and have an annual growth of 9.2%.Aside from the exports of goods,we expect the growth in all other sectors will revert to a positive level.

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    作者简介
    澳门大学“澳门宏观经济模型”研究组:
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