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    2019年中国房地产市场及房地产金融运行分析及展望

    摘要

    在坚持“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”政策定位之下,通过行政手段持续调控房地产市场已经使得长期形成的房价看涨预期在2019年第二季度开始完全转变。这体现在2019年一线城市房价持续企稳,二线城市房价涨幅回落,三线城市房价涨幅收窄,住房销售规模增长持续放缓,第二季度之后土地成交溢价率持续下降、土地流拍数量激增等多个方面。但依然有以下风险点值得关注:第一,三、四线城市的房价泡沫积聚;第二,三、四线城市住宅库存进入新一轮上升周期;第三,中小房企债务风险问题凸显。展望2020年,我们认为房地产市场运行态势发生实质性转变的概率较小,商品住房销售规模增速将会延续2019年的放缓趋势,商品住房价格涨幅将整体回落,部分城市可能会出现住房价格同比下降的情形,土地市场交易将趋于理性,金融机构对房企的信贷支持力度会产生更大分化,行业集中度会进一步提升。

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    Abstract

    With the government policy of “Houses are for living in and not for speculative investment”,the housing market has been regulated by increasing administrative measures,which has completely changed the long-term expectation of house price rising in the second quarter of 2019. This change is reflected in many aspects,for example,in 2019,the house prices in the first-tier cities remained stable;the housing price in the second-tier cities no longer continued to rise sharply;the rise of the house prices in the third-tier cities has been slowered;the housing sales growth has slowed down;land transaction price premium rates continue to drop after the second quarter of 2019;and the number of unsold land has increased significantly,etc.. However,there are still several risks that deserve attention:The first,the bubble of housing prices in third and fourth-tier cities is accumulating. The next,the housing inventory in third and fourth-tier cities has entered a new round of rising cycle. At last,the default risks of small and medium-size real estate enterprises is outstanding. Looking forward to next year,we believe that there will be no substantial change in the real estate market. The growth rate of housing sales may continue the slowdown trend in 2019. The growth rate of housing prices will fall back,and housing prices in some cities may experience a downward process. The land market will return to rationality. The financial support of financial institutions to real estate enterprises will have greater differentiation,and market concentration in the real estate industry will further increase.

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    作者简介
    崔玉:崔玉,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心研究员,主要研究方向为房地产市场、时间序列模型。
    蔡真:蔡真,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所国际金融与国际经济研究室副主任,副研究员,国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心主任,主要研究方向为风险管理、房地产市场。
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