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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年中国外汇市场发展分析及2020年展望

    摘要

    2019年在国际风险挑战明显增多的复杂局面下,我国外汇管理部门扎实推进改革开放,有效防控外部冲击风险,为国民经济平稳运行营造了良好的外汇市场环境。因此,我国跨境资金流动基本稳定,外汇市场供求保持平衡,外汇储备规模稳中有升。首先,本报告概述了2019年我国国际储备资产的总体情况,分析了外汇储备规模的变化及原因,总结了外汇储备经营管理的现状;其次,汇总了2019年发布实施的主要外汇管理政策,分析了对跨境资金流动风险的应对策略及效果,并梳理了外汇市场基础设施建设的推进情况;再次,分析了人民币兑美元及多边汇率的走势,总结了外汇市场交易及外汇收支情况;最后,展望了2020年我国外汇市场的发展前景。

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    Abstract

    The international situation in 2019 is complex,and the global economic and financial risk has risen significantly. In this context,Chinese foreign exchange management department made solid progress in reform and opening up,effectively prevented and controlled external shock risks,and created a good foreign exchange market environment for the smooth operation of the national economy. On this basis,China’s balance of payments is basically balanced,cross-border capital flows remain stable,supply and demand in the foreign exchange market are basically balanced,and the scale of foreign exchange reserves is rising steadily. Firstly,this report outlines the general situation of China’s international reserve assets in 2019,analyzes the changes and causes of the scale of foreign exchange reserves,and summarizes the current situation of foreign exchange reserve management;secondly,it summarizes the major foreign exchange management policies issued and implemented in 2019,analyzes the implementation and effects of cross-border capital flow risks,and combs the progress of infrastructure construction;thirdly,it analyzes the trend of RMB against US dollar and multilateral exchange rate,summarizes the foreign exchange market transactions,foreign exchange income and expenditure. Finally,it prospects the development of China’s foreign exchange market in 2020.

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    作者简介
    宣晓影:宣晓影,助理研究员,2008年3月毕业于日本同志社大学,获得政策科学博士学位,现供职于中国社会科学院金融研究所国际金融与国际经济研究室,主要从事国际经济与金融领域的比较研究。
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