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    2019年中国债券市场发展分析及2020年展望

    摘要

    总的来看,2019年我国债券一级市场进一步回暖,二级市场运行基本平稳。社会融资环境好转,企业流动性压力有所缓解,非金融企业债,特别是高等级民营企业债券发行与净融资增加。无风险利率在3。0%~3。4%的区间震荡,期限利差、信用利差也基本保持稳定。同时,随着经济金融环境的变化,债券市场的结构分化趋势也进一步延续。高等级民营企业债券融资增加,但中低等级民营企业债券发行仍然困难;前期急剧扩张的同业存单发行与净融资大幅放缓;流动性风险与信用风险的显性化,债券违约的常态化也使期限利差、信用利差有所分化。2020年,预计经济将迎来新一轮的弱复苏,市场流动性合理充裕,社会融资成本有所下降,故10年期国债收益率会小幅上行,期限利差走阔,信用利差总体收窄。但我国的高债务问题仍会继续发酵,债券违约常态化趋势仍会延续,低等级债券发行困难不减,收益率难以出现较大幅度下降。

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    Abstract

    On the whole,in the year of 2019,China’s primary bond market improved further,and the secondary market is basically stable. The social financing environment improved,the pressure on corporate liquidity eased,and Non-financial corporate bonds,especially high-grade private corporate bond issuance as well as net financing increased. The risk-free interest rate fluctuated in the range of 3.0%-3.4%,and the term spread and credit spread remained basically stable. At the same time,with the changes in the economic and financial environment,the trend of structural differentiation in the bond market continued. The financing of high-grade private corporate bonds increased,but the issuance of low-and medium-grade private corporate bonds was still difficult;the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit and net financing have slowed down sharply;the liquidity risk,credit risk,and the normalization of bond defaults has also Differentiate the term spread and credit spread.

    In 2020,the economy is expected to usher in a new round of weak recovery. Market liquidity will be reasonable and abundant,and social financing costs will fall. Therefore,the yield on 10-year government bonds will rise slightly,the term spread will widen,and the credit spread will generally slow down. However,China’s debt problems will continue to ferment,and the trend of normalization of bond defaults will continue. So,it will still be difficult for low-grade bonds to issue. Also,the yield of low-grade bond is hard to decline.

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    作者简介
    张运才:张运才,博士,国家金融发展实验室中国债券论坛特约研究员,主要研究方向为资本市场。
    王增武:王增武,中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员,曾在IME,AEF以及《经济研究》和《金融评论》等期刊上发表学术文章多篇。
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