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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2019年中国股票市场发展分析及2020年展望

    摘要

    2019年股市运行总体趋势是上涨,呈现三大特点:一是股价结构分化,大盘蓝筹股得到资金的持续关注,股价持续上涨,绩差股总体走弱;二是各类概念股炒作有升温之势,“妖股”重出江湖,此类现象与监管政策的变化有关;三是境外投资者对A股市场的影响日渐增加,陆港通资金已经成为观察市场走势的风向标。

    科创板推出是2019年度最重要的事件。科创板推出的第一个季度运行总体表现平稳,但新股发行定价偏高,二级市场定价严重偏高,随着科创板上市公司数量的增加,股价已经出现大幅度回落,将来依然存在估值回归的压力。科创板实施的注册制对A股市场有深远的影响。

    展望2020年,人民币汇率趋稳,外资配置A股的需求将持续增加,蓝筹股将继续得到关注。市场无风险收益率持续走低,有利于股市活跃,但受注册制扩容的影响,绩差股的壳价值将继续贬值,绩差股的股权质押风险上升。在国内产业政策的引导下,龙头科技股将成为市场关注的焦点。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,the stock market observes an overall rising trend with three major characteristics. First,stock price structurally differentiates. Blue chip prices in the broader market soar as they attract funds,while stock prices of poorly performed companies generally sink. Second,there is a rising trend of hype marketing of various concept stocks,giving rise to stocks with abnormal performance again. Their reappearance is related to changes in regulatory policies. Third,foreign investors have an increasing influence on the A-shares market,with the flow of funds in the cross-border market becoming an indicator of market trends.

    The launch of the science and technology board is the most important event of the year. The overall performance of its first quarter is stable,but the newly offered shares is set at a high price,and the secondary market is seriously overpriced. With the increase in the number of companies listed on the science and technology board,stock price has fallen sharply. This trend is likely to continue in the future until price matches real value. The registration system implemented by the science and technology board has a profound impact on the A-share market.

    In 2020,with stabilized RMB exchange rate and a rising demand for A-shares of foreign investors,blue chips would continue to receive attention. The market’s risk-free rate of return would continue to decline,contributing to activity of the stock market. However,due to the expansion of the registration system,the shell value of stocks of poorly performed companies would continue to depreciate,and their equity pledge risk rises. Under the guidance of domestic industrial policies,leading technology stocks would become the focus of market attention.

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    作者简介
    尹中立:尹中立,博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,房地产金融研究中心主任,兼任民盟中央经济委员会副主任、住建部房地产市场专家委员会委员、荣盛发展首席经济学家。
    张运才:张运才,博士,国家金融与发展实验室特约研究员。
    姚云:姚云,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所资本市场研究室助理研究员,主要研究方向为公司金融、增长理论。
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