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谢伏瞻
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年中国货币市场运行分析及改革与发展

    摘要

    2019年我国货币市场运行更加平稳,交易量绝对水平上升,增速持续下行;从客户结构来看,银行资金宽松,非银行金融机构成本下降,隔夜占比明显上升,融资利率波动性有所下降。市场运行也出现了三方面的新现象:一是金融供给侧改革下,受包商银行托管事件的影响,中小银行存单利差明显提升,二级市场交易活跃度下降,存单发行期限拉长;二是下半年,受房地产调控和需求不足的影响,票据利率出现了几次断崖式下跌;三是货币市场利率在存贷款利率改革中承担双重调控职能,一方面通过短端资金利率调控金融市场体系,另一方面通过MLF、LPR等中长端利率调控信用体系,进而引导实体经济融资成本下降。

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    Abstract

    The money market operation was more stable in 2019. The trading volume continued to rise with less acceleration. From the perspective of market structure,financing area loosed for banks and the financing cost reduced for other financial institutions. As for the term structure,the proportion of overnight financing rose sharply with the volatility of the overnight rate declining.

    Three new economic phenomena showed up in money market:1)Under the condition of the financial supply-side reformation,the credit spreads of CDs of small and medium-sized banks significantly increased because of the trusteeship of the Baoshang Bank Limited. The maturities of CDs were prolonged and the trading activity decreased. 2)The bill rate experienced several cliff-like declines in 2019 H2 due to the regulation of real estate and the insufficient aggregated demand. 3)Rates of money market played a dual regulatory role in the reformation of deposit and loan rates. On the one hand,they regulated the financial market system through short-term fund rates and on the other hand,they regulated the credit system through medium and long-term interest rates such as MLF and LPR,which led to the reduction of financing costs in the substantial economy.

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    作者简介
    李刚:李刚,博士,鹏扬基金管理有限公司执行董事、合伙人、副总经理、副研究员、高级经济师,主要研究方向为宏观经济和货币政策、债券市场和大类资产配置。
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