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    2019年中国信托业发展分析及2020年展望

    摘要

    中国信托业的经营周期已经进入持续近两年的下行阶段。根据2019年第三季度数据,信托行业受托资产管理规模经历了连续7个季度的下跌,同时风险资产规模加速上升。与两年前相比,当前信托业经营与监管环境已经发生根本性变化,周期性调整格局变得明朗。一些短期机遇与长期挑战的交织加剧了行业经营状况的波动。例如,2019年第一季度股票市场的反弹大幅改善了信托公司证券类信托业务和固有业务的表现。同时,房地产类信托业务与银信合作类业务都呈现爆发式增长。在随后的两个季度,这些有利因素的影响开始减弱,风险资产规模开始加速增长。这表明行业风险因素已经开始显性化,未来的“硬着陆”风险值得警惕和防范。

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    Abstract

    The operating cycle of China’s trust industry has entered a downward phase lasting nearly two years. According to the latest figures for the third quarter of 2019,industry fiduciary assets under management have experienced seven consecutive quarters of decline,while risk assets have accelerated. Compared with two years ago,the current operating and regulatory environment of the trust industry has changed fundamentally,and the cyclical adjustment pattern has become clear. The combination of short-term opportunities and long-term challenges has exacerbated the volatility of the industry’s operating conditions. For example,the stock market rebound in the first quarter of 2019 significantly improved the performance of trust companies’ securities-related trust businesses and their inherent businesses. At the same time,real estate related trust business and bank-trust cooperation business have shown explosive growth. In the following two quarters,these favorable factors and influences began to fade,and the growth of risk assets began to accelerate. This shows that the industry risk factors have begun to show. The risk of a hard landing in the future should be guarded against.

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    作者简介
    袁增霆:袁增霆,经济学博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所金融实验室副研究员,主要研究方向为资产组合管理、新型金融工具与交易。
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