教育资源是为学生服务的,学位需求变动对教育资源配置有直接影响。学位需求预测也是科学的教育规划中不可回避的一个环节。首都的学位需求预测还需要特别考虑到生育周期、“全面二孩”政策、“非首都功能疏解”政策和京津冀协同发展等相关因素的影响。本文使用北京市教委网站公布的教育事业统计资料、历年北京市统计年鉴、2000年及2010年北京市人口普查资料,2015年北京市1%人口抽样调查资料,对2020~2035年首都基础教育阶段学位需求分低、中、高方案进行了预测。总体来说,未来15年内,全市学前至高中教育阶段学位需求会分别在2021年、2027年、2030年、2033年达到峰值。对比低方案和高方案的预测值,现阶段“全面二孩”政策对学前教育阶段及小学教育阶段的学位需求有较大的影响。
<<Educational resources should be allocated for students. The changes of school age population have directly impact on the allocation of educational resources. At the same time,the projection of school age population is also an unavoidable part of the scientific education plan. l the factors such as the birth cycle,the universal two-child policy and coordinated development of the Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei region also need to be considered. This article uses the education statistics published by the Beijing Municipal Education Commission,the Beijing Statistical Yearbook,the 2130 and 2010 Beijing Population Census data,the 2015 Beijing 1% population sample survey data,which project the basic education stage population from 2020 to 2035. In general,in the next 15 years,the population from pre-school to high school education stage will reach peaks in 2021,2027,2030,2033. Comparing the predicted values of the low and high programs,the universal two-child policy has a greater impact on pre-primary and primary education.
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