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    2019~2020年北京市金融运行形势分析与预测

    摘要

    本文分析了2019年北京市金融运行特点,分析发现,金融宏观调控和信贷政策导向评估效果良好,存贷款增速总体平稳,其中人民币存款和人民币贷款均保持较高增速,外币存款和外币贷款余额略有下降,金融对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度加大,融资结构不断优化,贷款利率、债券融资成本持续下行。需要关注企业贷款需求疲弱、信贷总量保持较快增速压力较大,债券市场违约风险进一步上升;房企融资紧张、资金缺口较大,金融市场关联性风险上升等问题。预计2020年,北京市金融业将以新发展理念更好地发挥对疫情防控工作和实体经济的支持作用,社会融资规模适度增长,融资结构进一步优化。

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    Abstract

    This article analyzes the characteristics of Beijing’s financial operations in 2019. The analysis finds that financial macro-control and credit policy-oriented evaluation have been effective,and the growth rate of deposits and loans has been generally stable. RMB deposits and RMB loans have maintained a high growth rate. Foreign currency deposits and foreign currency loan balances have declined slightly. It has been increased financial support for key areas and weak links. The financing structure has been continuously optimized,and loan interest rates and bond financing costs have continued to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the weak demand for corporate loans,the pressure on maintaining the rapid growth of total credit is greater and bond market further raises default risk. And that housing companies are experiencing tight financing and a large funding gap;rising risks associated with financial markets. It is expected that in 2020,Beijing’s financial industry will better play its supporting role in epidemic prevention and control and the real economy with new development concepts. The scale of social financing will increase moderately,and the financing structure will be further optimized.

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    作者简介
    高菲:高菲,经济学博士,中国人民银行营业管理部金融研究处干部,主要研究方向为宏观经济、国际金融等。
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