中国的海外投资正面临“逆全球化”浪潮和中美贸易摩擦这两大因素的双重冲击。相较而言,美国对华战略态度的显著恶化所带来的负面影响更为严峻。特朗普被选举为总统后,美国将防止核心技术流失作为处理中国对美投资议题的关键,加强了国家安全审查,并成功获得了欧盟和其他盟友的配合。大国安全竞争已压倒其他因素,成为2016年以来对中国海外投资安全的最主要威胁。受此影响,中国对美欧主要经济体的投资显著下滑,对美投资流量更是几近枯竭。未来一段时期,应对大国竞争的风险将是维护中国海外投资安全的最重要议题。除了规避风险、积极应对国家安全审查之外,中国企业还亟待加强自主创新能力,改变中国的海外投资方式,增强海外投资的韧性。
<<Chinese ODI around the world is facing the tide of deglobalization and suffering the impact from the trade war with United states. In these two factors the trade war is much more significant,behind which is the mind change of United Sates. Since Donald Trump steered the White House,US began to treat China as its major strategic rival and set the protection of edging technology the key issue in bilateral relation. Trump administration enhanced the national security scrutiny and got the cooperation from major allies in Europe. After 2016,the strategic competition with United States has been the most severe challenge to China. As the result,Chinese ODI to major economies is decreasing swiftly and the outflow to United States is near empty. In the future,handing this kind of risk will be the most important issue for China. And for Chinese enterprises,they should avoid and mitigate risks,answer to national security reviews actively and properly,and enhance its ability of innovation. Chinese ODI should also adjust itself to the new environment and improve its resilience.
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