本文利用政府统计数据和抽样调查资料,分析了近年来上海婚姻变迁的特征、趋势和原因。研究发现,上海婚姻变迁的趋势特征主要表现在:初婚年龄不断提高,晚婚已成普遍趋势;结婚仍是绝大多数人的必经之途,未现单身浪潮迹象;初育行为推迟,但不育只是少数人的理想与选择;离婚率持续攀升,但总体水平不居全国前列;个人幸福主义获认同,婚姻不可离异性的观念降低。本文认为,导致上海婚姻变迁的原因主要有:全球化、现代化背景下婚姻家庭遭遇结构性困境,个体主义价值观念传播导致婚姻价值观念的情感化,社会领域性别平等的提升和家庭领域固守传统性别化期待衍生的个体婚姻困境,社会政策调整助推婚姻行为的波动。本文最后从推进上海婚姻服务的角度提出了几点思考与建议。
<<Drawing on the government statistical data and sampling survey data,this report analyzes the characteristics,trends and causes of marriage and childbearing changes in Shanghai in recent decades. We find that Shanghai young people’s mean age at first marriage is increasing,and late marriage has become a general trend;marriage is still the choice for the vast majority of people,and there is no sign of single wave;young people are postponing parenthood,while childlessness is seen as the ideal general fertility option for only a small minority;the divorce rate continues to rise,but the overall level is not in the top of China;the values of personal happiness are generally accepted and the concept of marriage cannot be divorced is reducing. Finally,the article puts forward some suggestions for promoting the service of marriage and childbearing in Shanghai.
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