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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    新冠肺炎疫情对金融行业的影响分析(2020)

    摘要

    本次疫情对我国经济、金融市场和金融业的影响总体来看是短期的和可控的。监管部门打出金融支持防控疫情组合拳,保持流动性合理充裕,加大货币信贷支持力度。A股市场短期利空,债券市场短期利好,外汇市场短期波动加大,但金融系统总体保持稳健运行。具体到金融行业,疫情对银行业短期有“量增价减”的影响,中长期影响有限。保险业短期新业务有压力,中长期对健康险产品有推动作用。疫情对证券业和基金业影响不显著。疫情影响信托的房地产信托、基建信托、工商企业信托业务,但为大健康领域信托提供了机遇,慈善信托通过此次疫情得到发展。疫情也提升了租赁行业的风险,同时存在医疗健康及其关联产业市场领域、消费领域和信息化领域的机会。总体而言,金融科技将因此次疫情而备受金融机构重视,发展加速。 <<
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    Abstract

    The impact of this epidemic on China’s economy,financial markets,and the financial industry is generally short-term and controllable. The regulatory authorities have made a combination of financial support for prevention and control of the epidemic. The A-share market is short-term negative. The bond market is favorable in the short-term. The short-term fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have increased,but the financial system has maintained a stable operation. The epidemic has a short-term impact on the banking industry,including “volume increase and price reduction”,with limited long-term effects. New short-term business in the insurance industry is under pressure,and mid-to-long-term health insurance products have a role to play. The impact of the epidemic on the securities and fund industries was not significant. The epidemic affects the trust’s real estate trusts,infrastructure trusts,and industrial and commercial enterprise trust businesses,but large health sector trusts provide opportunities,and charitable trusts have developed through this epidemic. The epidemic has also increased the risks of the leasing industry,and there are opportunities in the medical and health and related industry market areas,consumer areas,and informatization areas. In general,fintech will be highly valued by financial institutions for this epidemic,and development will accelerate.

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    作者简介
    高彦如:中级经济师,中国建投投资研究院研究员
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