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谢伏瞻
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    新冠肺炎疫情对房地产行业的影响分析(2020)

    摘要

    新冠肺炎疫情对房地产的短期运行产生了显著的负面影响,回乡置业需求消失,一季度将成交惨淡;土地出让与企业复工延期;房地产企业资金面紧张,中小企业偿债压力大;货币与财政政策将会有所改善,因城施策会更多支持刚性需求。中长期来看,此次疫情的负面影响比非典更大,疫情过后行业反弹力度会较弱,潜在影响的持续时间可能也会延续到下半年;疫情将会导致房地产市场分化加剧,中小城市压力更大,房企的市场集中度进一步提高;写字楼空置率会提升,租金价格和物业出售单价会下滑,远程办公渗透率会提高,中小微企业更多尝试共享办公或合并办公室;服务好、管理规范、专业尽责的品牌物业公司将更受青睐。 <<
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    Abstract

    The outbreak of new Coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) has a significant negative impact on the short-term operation of real estate. The demand for home purchase will disappear,and the first quarter will be dismal. The land transfer will be delayed,and the enterprises will be postponed to work. The cash flow of the real estate enterprises will be tight,and the debt pressure of the SMEs will be great. The monetary and fiscal policies will be improved. In the medium and long term,the negative impact of the NCP is greater than that of SARS. After the epidemic,the industry rebound will be weak,and the potential impact may continue to the second half of the year. The epidemic situation will lead to intensified differentiation of the real estate market,greater pressure on small and medium-sized cities,and further improvement of the market concentration of real estate enterprises. The control rate of office buildings will increase,the rental price and property selling unit price will decline. The penetration rate of remote office will increase,and small and medium-sized enterprises will try to share office or merge office more. And brand property companies with good service,standardized management and professional responsibility will be more popular.

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    作者简介
    王申:博士,中国建投投资研究院研究员
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