In 2019,affected by the lag effect of global monetary policy tightening,intensified trade friction and geopolitical factors,the global economy resonated downward,and the main indicators fell to historical lows. Trade conflicts spread and Global trade volume shrank. Major central banks have launched a wave of interest rate cuts to hedge against economic downside risks. Now many countries in the world are facing such risks as limited macro policy space,increased financial vulnerability and expanded governance deficit,which will lead to profound changes in the pattern of international relations,trade and investment order,financial pattern,industrial division of labor pattern and energy pattern. Looking forward to 2020,the downward trend of the global economy is likely to bottom in the second half of the year. Under the benchmark situation of no deterioration of trade frictions and controllable risk of geopolitical conflicts,the global economic growth rate is expected to maintain around 3.0% in 2020.
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