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    超级猪周期影响下如何实现生猪产业稳产保供

    摘要

    本报告立足本轮猪周期的基本特点、形成原因及影响,探讨了猪产业稳产保供的现实困境,并提出实现生猪产业稳产保供的原则和对策建议。从生产端来看,当前疫情形势仍然严峻,养殖资金缺乏,养殖信心不足;从消费端看,疫情影响和前期猪肉价格上涨导致猪肉消费阶段性低迷,需求对生产的拉动作用有待提高;从政策层面看,政策存在很多不确定性,养殖户缺乏稳定的预期。要实现生猪产业稳产保供,需要强化疫情防控工作,提振复养信心;加大资金支持力度,激发市场活力;保障猪肉市场供应,稳定猪肉价格;维护政策稳定性,稳定养殖预期。

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    Abstract

    Based on the characteristics,causes and effects of this round of pig cycle,this report explores the practical dilemma of stabilizing the production and securing an adequate supply of the pig,and proposes the basic principles and corresponding countermeasures for promoting stable production and adequate supply of the pig. From the production perspective,the current epidemic situation is still severe,and the farmers breeding pig lack funding and confidence. From the consumption perspective,the impact of the epidemic situation and the previous rising pork prices led to a period of sluggish of pork consumption,and the pull action of demand in boosting production needs to be improved. From the policy perspective,due to many uncertainties in the policies,the farmers lack stable expectations. The corresponding countermeasures for stabilizing the production and securing an adequate supply of the pig are as follow:firstly,strengthening the prevention and control of epidemic and boosting confidence of farmers;secondly,keeping increasing financial support and stimulating market vitality;thirdly,securing an adequate supply of the pork and stabilizing pork prices;finally,improving the policy stability and stabilizing farmers’ expectations.

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    作者简介
    罗千峰:罗千峰,中国人民大学管理学博士研究生,主要研究方向为畜牧经济、农业经济理论与政策。
    韩磊:韩磊,管理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,主要从事粮食安全、农产品市场、畜牧业经济等领域的研究。
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