2019年是粮食产量丰收年,虽然谷物播种面积适度调减,但谷物单产普遍提高,谷物总产量增长0。6%。其中稻谷减产,小麦、玉米和大豆均增产。2019年棉花总播种面积下降0。5%,棉花总产量降幅达3。5%。2019年油料作物播种面积增长0。5%,油料产量增长1。8%。2019年中国糖料作物播种面积下降0。4%,产量增长2。2%。贸易方面,粮食作物和经济作物均处于净进口状态。价格方面,2019年较2018年,稻米、小麦、棉花和糖料下跌,大豆、玉米和油料上涨。从成本收益变化看,种植业人工成本普遍下降。预测2020年,稻谷和小麦的产量不会大幅下降,优质品种产量会增加;玉米存在小幅减产可能。大豆和油料作物种植面积会有所增加,增产可能性较大;2020年糖料作物增产可能性较大。受新冠肺炎疫情影响,2020年粮食价格会有一定幅度上涨,受国内外价差扩大、国内生产成本增加等因素影响,种植业进口压力依然较大。
<<In 2019,China reaped bumper harvest of grain crop,although the sown area of grain crop reduced moderately,the per unit area yield of grain generally increased,total yield of grain increased by 0.6%. Among them,rice production decreased,while wheat,corn and soybean production increased. The total sown area of cotton reduced by 0.5% and the total yield of cotton reduced by 3.5% in 2019,the sown area of oil-bearing crops increased by 0.5% and the yield increased by 1.8%. The sown area of sugar-yielding crop decreased by 0.4% and the yield increased by 2.2%. In terms of trade,both food crops and cash crops were in the status of net import. Compared with prices in 2018,the prices of rice,wheat,cotton and sugar fell,while the prices of soybean,corn and oil-bearing crops rose in 2019. From the perspective of cost-benefit,the labor cost of planting industry generally decreased. It is expected that the yield of rice and wheat will not drop significantly,and the yield of high-quality crop will increase,yield of corn may decrease slightly in 2020. The sown area of soybean and oil-bearing crops will increase,the yield is more likely to increase,meanwhile,the yield of the sugar-yielding crop is likely to increase in 2020. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,grain price will rise,the import pressure of the planting products is still high because of the widening price gap between domestic and overseas,increasing domestic production cost and other factors.
<<Keywords: | Cash CropFood CropFarming Industry |