2018年巴西总统大选被视为巴西近30年来“最分裂”“最难预测”“最重要”的一次大选。一方面,经济衰退、暴力横行、贪腐严重,巴西民主制度正受到前所未有的挑战;另一方面,本次大选打破了近30年来两党争霸的政党格局,极右势力在巴西迅速崛起,左右阵营对抗激烈。最终,素有“巴西特朗普”之称的极右翼政党人士博索纳罗赢得大选。博索纳罗的上台标志着极右民粹主义在巴西特定的政治与文化环境下的崛起,导致了巴西传统政治格局的重新洗牌;但同时,新政府的执政能力仍会受到传统政治体制的影响和制约。可以预见,新政府的执政理念和政策主张将发生巨大转变,但其转变程度大小仍有较大弹性空间。
<<The 2018 Brazilian presidential election appeared to be one of the most divided and the most difficult to predict since the country’s re-democratization. On the one hand,the Brazilian democratic system is being challenged as never before due to the economic recession,high rates of violence and corruption scandal;on the other hand,this election has broken the hegemony dominated by the Workers Party(PT)and the Brazilian Social Democratic Party(PSDB)got the last 30 years marked by the rapid rise of far-right political forces and the fiercely left-right confrontation. In the end,Bolsonaro,the far-right nationalist known as “Brazilian Trump” won the election. The rise of Bolsonaro illustrates the rise of far-right populism in Brazil’s specific political and cultural environment,leading to the reshuffling of Brazil’s traditional political structure;in the mean while,the new government’s political ability will still be influenced and constrained by the traditional political system. It is foreseen that the new government’s ruling philosophy and policy proposition will undergo a huge change,but there is still room for flexibility in the degree of transformation.
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