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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2018年以来宏观经济环境分析

    摘要

    2018年以来,全球经济继续保持稳步复苏。美国及欧元区主要发达经济体维持相对强劲的经济增长,同时印度、俄罗斯、巴西等主要新兴经济体实现不同程度的经济复苏。但是,主要经济体增长逐渐放缓、通胀上升,美联储加息,紧缩货币政策周期开启,与此同时,全球债务水平持续提高,贸易保护主义和逆全球化抬头,全球经济面临的风险和困难逐步增多。我国国内经济继续运行在合理区间,为2019年下半年及2020年的经济稳定发展打下了良好的基础。但也要看到,当前国内产业结构性矛盾仍比较突出,新旧动能转换任务艰巨,经济内生增长动力有待进一步加强,经济下行压力仍然较大。

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    Abstract

    Since 2018,the global economy has continued to maintain a steady recovery. Major developed economies in the United States and the Eurozone maintain relatively strong economic growth,while economies in major emerging economies such as India,Russia,and Brazil have achieved varying degrees of recovery. However,the growth of major economies has slowed down,inflation has risen,the Fed has raised interest rates,and the monetary policy cycle has been tightened. At the same time,global debt levels have continued to rise,trade protectionism and anti-globalization have risen,and the risks and difficulties facing the global economy have gradually increase. China’s domestic economy continues to operate in a reasonable range,continuing the overall stable,stable and progressive development trend,and the favorable factors are gradually increasing,laying a good foundation for the stable economic development in the second half of 2019 and 2020. However,we must also see that the current domestic industrial structural contradictions are still quite prominent. The task of converting old and new kinetic energy is arduous,and the economic endogenous growth momentum needs to be further strengthened. The downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large.

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    作者简介
    吕秀芹:吕秀芹,管理学硕士,江苏现代资产投资管理顾问有限公司现代研究院研究员,研究方向为地方政府债券、企业管理等。
    李启春:李启春,管理学硕士,江苏现代资产投资管理顾问有限公司研发总监,现代研究院副院长,研究方向为政府债务管理、地方政府债券、平台公司转型等。
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