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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2020年上海奉贤经济形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2019年奉贤经济发展总体呈现三大特征:经济运行总体趋势在预期之中,产业结构调整步伐加快;投资需求旺盛,消费市场发展相对平稳;财政收支面临新的挑战,民生保障持续加强。结合国际国内经济形势,预判2020年奉贤区经济发展大概率呈现先抑后稳的发展态势,增速水平与以往相比或有下降。长期来看,随着产业结构调整的步伐加快,投资和消费结构的逐步优化,以及贸易环境的趋稳改善,经济将维持在中速平稳发展的状态。当前经济形势较为严峻,国际政治经济环境变化莫测,要谨慎对待中美贸易摩擦不确定性对外贸企业和外商投资带来的冲击,以及园区规划中的土地留白、区域智慧城市发展不均衡等方面的风险和挑战。建议奉贤抓住临港新片区政策红利、东方美谷等产业集聚、经济园区转型机遇,对标国际化,面向长三角,打造南上海“未来空间”;抓住政策红利,营造更好的宜居宜业环境,加快人才落户,促进新兴产业集群发展。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,Fengxian’s overall economic development shows three characteristics:economic operation is weak in stable,the pace of industrial structure adjustment speeds up;Investment demand is strong,consumer market is in stable and slow change;Fiscal revenue and expenditure are tight,people’s livelihood security continued to be strengthened. Combined with the international and domestic economic situation,it is predicted that the economic development rate of Fengxian District will maintain a stable and slow development trend in 2020,and the growth level will remain the same as the average level of Shanghai. In the long term,with the gradual acceleration of industrial restructuring,the gradual optimization of investment and consumption structure,and the gradual stability and improvement of trade environment and structure,the economic growth will achieve a steady and progressive change. Under the circumstances of severe risks of economic downturn and unpredictable international political and economic environment,Fengxian needs to seize many opportunities,such as the policy dividend of Lingang New Area,the industrial agglomeration of the Oriental beauty Valley,the transformation of the economic Park,and the gradual optimization of the business environment of the ecological environment. At the same time,we should also guard against the increasing uncertainty of trade friction between China and the United States,land vacancy in the park planning,and unbalanced development of regional smart cities. In order to achieve high-quality economic development,it is suggested to target internationalization,serve the Yangtze River Delta and create a “future space” for South Shanghai;seize the opportunity of policy dividend and accelerate the attraction of talents;gradually improve the innovation mechanism and cultivate emerging industrial clusters.

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    作者简介
    朱平芳:朱平芳,上海社会科学院研究生院院长,研究员,博士生导师,主要研究方向为计量经济学、宏观经济预测分析与政策评价、科技进步评价与分析。
    邸俊鹏:邸俊鹏,经济学博士,上海社会科学院经济研究所、数量经济研究中心副研究员,主要研究方向为计量经济学理论及其在政策评估中的应用研究。
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