您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    祁连山多时间尺度气候变化及预测研究(1950~2020)

    摘要

    祁连山位于东部季风区、青藏高原区和西北干旱区三大自然区过渡带,是我国重要的生态屏障。近年来,受过度开发、超载放牧等人类活动及自然气候变化的影响,祁连山地区生态环境持续恶化。研究该区域多时间尺度生态环境演变过程与机制,对于祁连山生态环境治理至关重要。本报告研究对多时间尺度祁连山地区生态环境演变,结果表明:1958~2013年祁连山及周边地区气温增势明显,降水呈现在波动中曲折增长的趋势,气温和降水变化趋势在东西段表现出明显的空间差异性;祁连山东段地区在千年时间尺度上的气候变化主要呈现出早、中全新世湿润,晚全新世尤其是近2000年以来呈现干旱化趋势,西段地区气候适宜期出现在中全新世,晚全新世呈现湿润化趋势;近50年来,暖湿化致使祁连山地区生态环境发生了较为明显的变化;未来,祁连山地区气温将继续面临持续增长趋势,降水则表现出较为平稳的态势。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    Qilian Mountain is located in the transition zone between the eastern monsoon region,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and the northwest arid region. It is an important ecological barrier in China. In recent years,due to the impact of human activities such as over-exploitation,over-grazing and grazing,and natural climate change,the ecological environment in the Qilian Mountains has continued to deteriorate. Studying the evolution process and mechanism of multi-time scale ecological environment in this region is of great importance to clarify the good governance countermeasures of Qilian Mountain. The ecological environment evolution of the Qilian Mountains in the multi-time scale shows that the temperature increase in Qilian Mountain and surrounding areas is obvious during the period from 1958 to 2013. The precipitation shows a trend of tortuous growth in fluctuations. The trend of temperature and precipitation shows in the east and west. The obvious spatial difference;the climate change on the millennium time scale in the eastern part of Qilian is mainly wet in the early and middle Holocene,and the late Holocene,especially in the past 2000 years,has a tendency to arid,and the climate in the western part appears in the appropriate period. In the Middle Holocene,the late Holocene showed a trend of humidification;in the past 50 years,the warm and humidification has caused a significant change in the ecological environment of the Qilian Mountains;in the future,the temperature in the Qilian Mountains will continue to face a continuous growth trend,and the precipitation will show a relatively stable situation.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    李育:李育,兰州大学资源环境学院教授,博士生导师,主要从事古气候及古生态学研究。
    张宝庆:张宝庆,兰州大学资源环境学院教授,主要从事水文学及水资源方向的科学研究。
    王学佳:王学佳,中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院副研究员,主要从事青藏高原气候变化与模拟研究。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告