祁连山是青藏高原受气候变化和人类活动交互影响最为强烈的地区之一。作为我国西部重要的生态安全屏障,以冰冻圈(现代冰川、多年冻土和季节性积雪等)为主要地表覆被的高海拔山区是祁连山水资源的主源区。因此,祁连山“固体水塔”直接关系甘肃、内蒙古与青海地区近600万人的水与生态安全。本报告结合前期研究积累,重点研究了2011~2018年祁连山地区冻土面积和储量的变化特征、多年冻土地下冰储量及可能的融化释水量、祁连山地区固体水库(以多年冻土为主)动态变化对水资源的影响等。结果表明,祁连山区多年冻土分布的下界海拔具有很好的地带性规律,多年冻土升温速率对地表条件的依赖性不强;祁连山区过去10a以来通过多年冻土上限下降而融化的地下冰约为117。8亿m3;在不同气候情景下,预估的冰川融水径流在21世纪30年代前将一直增加,之后将逐渐减少。
<<Qilian Mountain is one of the regions with the strongest interaction between climate change and human activities on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As an important ecological security barrier in western China,high-altitude mountainous areas with frozen circles (modern glaciers,permafrost and seasonal snow) are the main source areas of Qilian Mountain water resources. Therefore,the “Solid Water Tower” of Qilian Mountain directly accounts for the water and ecological security of nearly 6 million people in Gansu,Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. Based on the previous research and accumulation,this paper focuses on the analysis of the variation characteristics of frozen soil area and reserves,the underground ice reserves of permafrost and the possible melting and releasing water amount,and the impact of dynamic changes of solid reservoirs (mainly permafrost) on water resources in qilian mountains from 2011 to 2018. The results show that the lower bound of the permafrost distribution in the Qilian Mountains has a good zonal law. The heating rate of permafrost is not dependent on the surface conditions. The underground ice that has been melted by the upper limit of permafrost since the last 10 years in the Qilian Mountains It is about 11.78 km3 (11.78 billion m3);under different climate scenarios,the estimated glacial meltwater runoff will increase until the 1930s and will gradually decrease.
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