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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2018~2019年长三角地区经济发展分析与展望

    摘要

    长三角地区是我国综合经济实力最强、一体化水平最高的地区之一,在我国区域发展格局中具有举足轻重的战略地位。本文主要基于相关数据资料,从总体概况、重点产业、增长动力三个方面分析了2018年长三角地区经济发展情况;基于战略机遇和主要挑战分析,对2019年长三角地区经济运行进行初步展望,主要结论为:2018年长三角地区经济增速继续下滑,但仍保持领先于全国和世界经济的态势;地区经济总量突破20万亿元,对全国经济总量的贡献份额基本稳定;经济总体发展水平较高,但地区差距较大;产业结构稳步升级,新兴产业对区域经济的支撑和拉动作用增强,但产业基础及重点产业发展情况存在较明显的地区和行业分异;投资、消费和出口三大需求增速出现不同程度的下降,拉动力减弱,但内部结构渐趋优化。2019年长三角地区既迎来新的战略机遇,又面临更为严峻的挑战,区域经济下行风险增大。

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    Abstract

    The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most economically developed and integrated regions in China. It plays an important strategic role in China’s overall regional development. Based on the relevant data,this paper analyses the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta in 2018 from three aspects:general development,key industries and growth momentum. Based on the analysis of strategic opportunities and major challenges,it makes a brief outlook on the economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta in 2019. The main conclusions are as follows:In 2018,the economic growth rate in the Yangtze River Delta region continued to decline,but it was still higher than that of China and the world. The GDP of the region has exceeded 20 trillion RMB,and its share in China’s total economic output is basically stable. The overall level of economic development is relatively high,but the regional gap is relatively large. The industrial structure has been steadily upgraded,and emerging industries play a more important role in promoting regional economy. However,there are obvious regional and industrial differences in the development of industrial base and key industries. The growth rate of investment,consumption and export all decreased,the pull power of demand was weakened,but its internal structure was gradually optimized. In 2019,the Yangtze River Delta region will not only face new strategic opportunities,but also more severe challenges. The downside risks of regional economy will increase.

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    作者简介
    王振:王振,上海社会科学院副院长、研究员,主要研究领域为区域经济、中小企业、人才发展等。
    薛艳杰:薛艳杰,上海社会科学院城市与人口发展研究所副研究员,主要研究领域为区域经济、农业农村发展等。
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