The real growth rate of world merchandise trade in 2018 fell to 3.0%，mainly due to the continued deterioration of world trade relations，especially the escalation of the China-US trade friction. The nominal growth rate of world merchandise trade reached 10%，which was significantly higher than the real growth rate，due to the increase in commodity prices，especially energy prices. World commercial services exports were $5.77 trillion in 2018，an increase of 7.7%. The continuing deterioration in trade relations affected the world trade situation in the first half of 2019，with merchandise trade volume falling by 0.16 Percentage point. The situation of world trade in services in the first half of 2019 is also not optimistic. The world merchandise trade is hard to improve in the second half of 2019，with real growth rate in 2019 expected between 0.5% and 1.5%，the lowest growth rate since 2010. World trade is expected to be better in 2020 than in 2019，with real growth rate in the range of 1.5% and 2.5%. Overall，the world trade situation in 2019 and 2020 will return to recession.