北京市人口的发展变动受人口出生率、死亡率和迁移率的影响,但受人口迁移的影响更大。本文通过国家卫计委流动人口监测数据,分析了在产业疏解和人口疏解背景下,在京外来人口的居留意愿问题。外来人口的留京意愿很强,90%多的人会选择继续留在北京。就业机会、教育资源等是外来人口愿意在京居留的根本原因。本文指出北京市未来的人口调控政策要与城市功能定位紧密配合,引导人口流动与城市发展和人口发展相协调。对于流动人口,要“疏”,更要“解”,本文提出了未来人口调控的政策建议。
<<The population development and change is affected by the birth rate,death rate and migration rate,Among them,the mobility rate has the greatest impact in Beijing. Based on the sample data of migrant collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission,this paper analyzes the residence willingness of the migrant in the context of the dispersion of population and industry in Beijing. The migrant residence willingness is strong,and more than 90% of people will stay in Beijing in the future. Employment opportunities and education resources are the most important reasons for their stay in Beijing. The paper point out that the future population policy should be closely coordinated with the functional Orientation of the city of Beijing and guide the coordination of population flow with the urban development and population development. As for the migrants,the “problem solution” is as important as the “evacuation”. Finally some policy suggestions for future population regulation are put forward.
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