新技术变革的“替代效应”使机器人替代体力工作的同时也增加了对智力工作岗位的替代,而与之相反的“生产效率效应”则创造了增加劳动力需求和提高劳动收入份额的新工作任务,尤其是劳动力具有比较优势的新工作任务。新技术应用对中国制造业普通劳动力岗位替代率为19。6%,但同时增加了认知和技能水平较高及“人机协作”操作和管理服务的工作岗位需求,由于劳动力成本与新技术采纳成本的权衡以及中国区间经济发展阶段的差异,新技术使中国劳动就业岗位流失的规模最终取决于人工智能在引导传统产业彻底变革的速度和程度。机器人、AI的使用会增加中国制造业全部劳动者的平均工资收益,但人力资本水平高、技能要求高的岗位和职业获得工资溢价更高,新技术采纳带来的技术溢价增强了不同技能和职业之间工资差距扩大的趋势。新技术革命趋势下,中国劳动力市场的职业变化趋势与技术进步、新技术应用保持一致,而1990~2015年的历次人口普查数据也从整体上反映了中国劳动力市场非常规工作任务呈现明显的增加趋势,常规操作型工作任务呈现明显下降趋势,不同类型职业的增减及新职业产生、旧职业的消失反映了新技术革命使中国劳动力市场就业结构正在发生变化。
<<The “substitution effect” of new technological change makes robots replace physical work while increasing the replacement of intellectual work,while the opposite “productivity effect” creates new work tasks that increase labor demand and increase labor income share,especially new work tasks with comparative advantages of labor force. The new technology application has a 19.6% replacement rate for the general labor force in China’s manufacturing industry,but at the same time it has increased the demand for jobs with higher cognitive and skill levels and “human-machine collaboration” operations and management services,because of the trade-off between labor cost and adoption cost of new technology and the difference of economic development stages between regions in China,the scale of job losses in China caused by new technology ultimately depends on the speed and degree of artificial intelligence in guiding the radical change of traditional industries. The use of robots and AI will increase the average wage income of all workers in China’s manufacturing industry. However,jobs and occupations with high human capital level and high skill requirements have higher wage premium,and the technology premium brought by the adoption of new technologies increases the trend of widening wage gap between different skills and occupations. Under the trend of new technological revolution,the trend of occupational change in China’s labor market is consistent with technological progress and application of new technologies. The data of the previous census from 1990 to 2015 also reflect the obvious increasing trend of unconventional work tasks and the obvious decreasing trend of routine operational work tasks in China’s labor market as a whole. The increase and decrease of different types of jobs,the emergence of new jobs and the disappearance of old jobs reflect that the employment structure of China’s labor market is changing due to the new technological revolution.
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