您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    “十四五”时期中国劳动力供需形势分析

    摘要

    2018年,中国经济活动人口开始下滑,且农民工规模较上一年减少了50余万人。本研究通过对“十四五”以及未来中长期的劳动力供给和需求进行预测,研究发现,“十四五”期间,中国劳动力供给将延续2018年态势,无论是劳动力供给总量,还是新增劳动力以及农民工均呈现下降趋势。结合我国未来经济增长预期带来的新增就业岗位情况,如果仅考察劳动力供需间的数量关系,那么,“十四五”将持续保持劳动力供需基本平衡,甚至出现供不应求的情况。2019年7月全国城镇调查失业率为5。3%,较上个月提高了0。2个百分点。这意味着未来中长期,中国就业市场的主要矛盾是劳动力供给与市场需求之间匹配问题,劳动供需间结构性矛盾是阻碍中国就业再平衡的核心。建议建立多元化的就业再平衡发展目标,实现不同类型失业的就业再平衡。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    In 2018,China’s economic activity population began to decline,and the scale of migrant workers decreased by more than 500 thousand compared with the previous year. Based on the prediction of labor supply and demand during the 14th Five Year Plan period and long term in the future,this study finds that,China’s labor supply would be continuing to decline since 2018,with a downward trend in the total labor supply,new labor and rural migrant workers. Combined with the expected new jobs brought about by China’s future economic growth,if only the quantitative relationship between labor supply and demand is examined,then the “14th five-year plan” will continue to maintain the basic balance. In July 2019,the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%,0.2 percentage points higher than last month. This means that in the medium and long term,the main contradiction of China’s employment market is the matching between labor supply and market demand,and the structural contradiction of labor supply is the core of hindering China’s employment rebalancing. It is suggested that we should set up diversified development goals and realize the employment rebalancing of different types of unemployment.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    向晶:向晶,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所助理研究员,研究方向为人口经济与就业。
    蔡翼飞:蔡翼飞,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所副研究员,研究方向为区域经济与就业。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告