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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年消费形势分析及2020年展望

    摘要

    2019年,我国经济调控保持战略定力,经济延续总体平稳、稳中趋缓的发展态势,国内消费充分发挥了经济稳定器作用。消费市场呈现居民消费整体平稳、城乡消费走势分化等基本特征,也暴露出就业和收入承压对消费的影响逐步显现,周期性、政策性因素扰动消费市场等问题。展望2020年,我国经济总体保持平稳运行,消费市场平稳运行具备扎实基础。就业和收入形势总体稳定,社保改革持续深化,信息技术推动变革等一系列因素将有力支撑深挖消费潜力。综合判断,消费需求有望继续保持平稳增长态势。

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    Abstract

    In 2019,China’s Macroeconomic policy maintained its strategic strength,and the economy continued to be stable. Domestic consumption has fully played the role of economic stabilizer. The consumer market shows the basic characteristics of overall household consumption stability and the differentiation of urban and rural consumption trends. It also reveals that the impact of employment and income pressure on consumption is gradually emerging,and cyclical or policy factors disturb the consumer market. Looking forward to 2020,China’s economy will generally maintain stable,and the consumer market has a solid increasing foundation. The employment and income situation is generally steady,the social security reform continues to deepen,and a series of factors such as information technology to promote change will strongly stimulate consumption potential. Based on comprehensive judgment,consumer demand has the conditions to maintain steady growth. It is estimated that the national per capita consumption expenditure will increase 5.5% in 2020,and the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase 7.2%.

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    作者简介
    邹蕴涵:邹蕴涵,国家信息中心经济预测部副研究员,主要研究方向为宏观经济、消费、能源经济等。
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