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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2019年中国投资形势分析与展望

    摘要

    2019年前三季度,受内外部市场环境变化影响,全国投资同比增长5。4%,为多年来同期最低增速,但有利于转型升级的高技术产业投资快速增长,房地产开发投资较快增长,投融资体制改革不断深化。第四季度,因民间投资增长受市场预期影响明显,国企投资和政府投资增长受杠杆率约束,房地产开发投资调控空间小,投资仍有下行压力。应采取优化投资环境、鼓励社会资本投向民生领域、盘活政府存量资产、提高小微投资的融资可得性、引导利率下行等措施,稳定投资运行,促进稳就业、稳增长。

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    Abstract

    In the first three quarters of this year,influenced by the changes in internal and external market environment,China’s fixed assets investment grows by 5.4%,the slowest growth rate in recent decades. However,the high-tech industry investment conducive to structural transformation and upgrading grows rapidly,the real estate investment also witnesses a relatively fast growth,and the investment and financing system reform has been deepened continuously. Due to the factors that private sector investment will be influenced by market expectations,the government and SOEs investment face the constraint of the leverage ratio and the space for regulating real estate investment will also be limited,the fixed assets investment in the fourth quarter will continue to be under downward pressure. Therefore,in order to stabilize the investment performance,employment and macro-economic growth,policy measures should be adopted to improve the general business environment,encourage private sector investment in social welfare projects,revitalize public sector stock assets,enhance the financing conditions for SMEs,and properly regulate the interest rate downward of the banking market.

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    作者简介
    张长春:张长春,中国宏观经济研究院投资研究所研究员,主要研究方向为投资政策、经济增长。
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