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    粤港澳大湾区气候变化及气候风险

    摘要

    建设国际一流湾区和世界级城市群是粤港澳大湾区发展的国家重大战略目标。本文基于大湾区近百年气象观测资料和区域气候模式百年模拟结果,从气候生态环境特点、气候变化与极端天气气候事件事实、气象灾害与气候风险、未来30年气候趋势、气候环境面临挑战、气候变化适应对策等方面进行了系统性分析。大湾区温暖多雨、类型多样、灾害频发、植被条件好,但地处低纬度气候系统脆弱区,独特优势与气候风险并存。近60年大湾区气候呈现暖湿化格局;短历时降水强度大、登陆台风强度大、海平面升速明显,气象灾情重、气候风险大、灾情和风险凸显在未来30年会进一步持续。面对防灾减灾救灾和气候变化适应需求,未来应切实采取积极行动,合理利用气候资源、提高气象灾害风险管理能力、做好气候变化适应性城市建设。

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    Abstract

    Building a first-class bay district and a star city group is a very important strategic goal for the development in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao. Based on the 100-year meteorological observations and simulation results of regional climate models in the Great Bay District,this work systematically analyzes the characteristics of climate and ecological environment,the facts of climate change and extreme events,meteorological disasters and climate risks,climate trends in the next 30 years,challenges to the climate environment and climate change adaptation. Results show that the Great Bay District is warm and rainy,with various climate types,frequent meteorological disasters and good vegetation conditions. However,it is located in a vulnerable region with low latitude climate system,and its unique advantages coexist with climate risks. In the past 60 years,the climate in the Great Bay District has been warm and humid;the short-term precipitation intensity is strong,the landing typhoon intensity is strong,the sea level rises rapidly,the meteorological disaster is serious,the climate risk is high,the disaster and risk will continue in the next 30 years. Facing the needs of disaster prevention and mitigation,and climate change adaptation,we must take active actions to rationally use climate resources,improve the risk management capabilities of meteorological disasters,and strengthen climate change adaption urban construction.

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    作者简介
    周兵:周兵,国家气候中心研究员、新闻发言人,中国气象局气象服务首席专家,全国气候与气候变化学科首席科学传播专家,研究领域为气象服务与季风降水。
    曾红玲:曾红玲,国家气候中心高工,研究领域为气候评估与气候决策服务。
    赵琳:赵琳,国家气候中心工程师,研究领域为气象灾害应急管理。
    韩振宇:韩振宇,国家气候中心高工,研究领域为气候变化评估。
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