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    2018年中国轻客市场回顾及2019年展望

    摘要

    2018年轻客销量持续下探至近七年来的低点,主要是受到了需求侧和供给侧的双重夹击。宏观经济下行,居民消费增速放缓,民营中小企业遭遇困境是2018年轻客市场下滑的根本原因;轻客安全法规趋严和城市物流车辆新能源化,削弱了轻客在城市物流市场的相对竞争力。2018年轻客市场呈现如下特征:产品格局上欧系VAN占比持续上升,BUS和日系VAN占比持续下滑;竞争格局上总体表现平稳,大通增幅最大;区域格局上仍以苏浙沪粤等商业发达地区为主,江苏销量占比持续上升;燃油类型上,柴油上升,汽油和新能源双双下滑。未来几年,物流类轻客市场规模进一步发展仍受挑战,但是专业物流、行业专用改装、房车等细分市场存在发展机遇。预计2019年全年轻客需求仍维持负增长态势,全年需求在31万~33万辆之间。

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    Abstract

    In 2018,the light van sales continued to decline and reached the bottom in the last 7 years due to both the supply side and demand side impacts. The fundamental reasons for the decline of light van market in 2018 were the downturn of macroeconomic,the slowdown of the consumption growth rate and the difficult position of small and medium-sized private enterprises. Also the tightening of light van safety regulations and the development of NEV urban logistics vehicle have weakened the competitive power of light van in the urban logistics market. In 2018,the light van market showed the following characteristic:the proportion of European light van sales continued to rise,the proportion of light bus and Japanese light van continued to decline;the overall performance of the competition structure was stable and Maxus got the highest growth rate;the regions with highest sales were still the commercially developed areas such as Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghai and Guangdong,the proportion of Jiangsu sales continued to rise;for the type of fuel,the proportion of diesel increased,the proportion of gasoline and NEV both declined. In the next few years,the development of the light van logistics market will still face challenges,but some other sub-markets such as the SPV market and RV market will get the opportunity to have a better development. It is expected that the growth rate of the light van market in 2019 will remain negative and the sales will be between 310000 and 330000.

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    作者简介
    谢国平:谢国平,北京师范大学心理测量与评价专业硕士,现任国家信息中心信息化和产业发展部副处长,商用车研究组负责人,具有10余年汽车市场分析与评估经验。
    苑伟超:苑伟超,中国人民大学区域经济学硕士,现任国家信息中心商用车研究高级项目分析师,具有6年轻型商用车以及客车市场研究经验。
    廖琨:廖琨,美国罗切斯特理工学院金融学硕士,现任国家信息中心商用车研究高级分析师,具有4年轻微型商用车市场研究经验。
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