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    国家自主贡献实施细则及其对中国的影响分析

    摘要

    2018年12月的联合国气候变化框架公约缔约方大会暨《巴黎协定》缔约方大会在波兰卡托维兹举行,会议达成了以《巴黎协定》实施细则为主的一揽子成果,其中,包括国家自主贡献议题所达成的特征、信息和核算导则安排。导则确定了自下而上和自主决定的安排,反映出共同但有区别的责任原则,也包含了减缓以外的其他要素,并且在适用时间上为各方预留了充分的准备时间。国家自主贡献议题实施细则的安排将对我国的后续履约以及谈判产生重要影响。本文采用对比分析的方法,评估了中国已经提交的国家自主贡献与实施细则要求的差异,并提出相应建议,认为我国需要为通报第二轮以及后续国家自主贡献提供更为全面、详细的信息,包括参考点的量化信息、时间框架、范围、规划过程、假设和方法学等七个方面的信息。与此同时,在中国2020年更新国家自主贡献的方案时,应统筹考虑2019年联合国气候行动峰会呼吁“提高气候行动目标力度”等国内外形势,考虑做出策略性回应。

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    Abstract

    In December 2018,the Conference of the Parties of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Conference of the Parties to the Paris Agreement were held in Katowice,Poland. The Conference achieved a package of outcome for the detailed rules on Paris Agreement implementation,including the Feature,information and accounting guidance on nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The guidance reflects the bottom-up arrangements and the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities. It also includes the elements other than mitigation and provide adequate time for the Parties on the preparation for implementation. The new requirements of the in the guidance will bring crucial influences on China’s further domestic implementation and international negotiations. This paper uses the method of comparative analysis to evaluate the difference between China current submitted NDC and the requirements of the guidance. It is suggested that in the second and subsequent rounds of NDCs communication,China needs to provide more comprehensive and detailed information on seven aspects,including quantifiable information on reference level,time frame,scope,planning process,assumptions and methodology,etc. At the same time,China should also consider the domestic and foreign situations as the context such as the call for “improving the intensity of climate action goals” in 2019 UN climate action Summit and make strategic response.

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    作者简介
    樊星:樊星,国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心助理研究员。
    柴麒敏:柴麒敏,国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心副研究员。
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