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    主要国家长期低排放战略要点及启示

    摘要

    《巴黎协定》及巴黎会议决定要求各国提交长期低排放发展战略。本文分析了12个国家长期低排放战略在法律效力、目标力度、各温室气体排放领域减排路径等方面的内容。总体来看,欧洲各国的立法基础最好,法律效力最高,执行力也相对有保障;美国和加拿大国家层面的立法相对滞后,但是次国家层面的政策和行动相对积极;小岛屿国家高调参与全球气候治理,向国际社会释放了提高行动力度的信号。从减排力度来看,发达国家普遍提出了到2050年的量化减排目标,并能够达到减排80%左右的力度,部门分解目标做得比较细致,提出的时间也比较早;发展中国家力度较弱,符合发展中国家的地位。结论认为,长期低排放战略应与各国国情和发展优先序很好地结合。较早提交长期低排放战略,能够向国际社会展现本国应对气候变化的积极姿态。中国应在坚守发展中国家定位的基础之上,展示负责任的大国形象,于2020年之前提交我国长期温室气体低排放发展战略。

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    Abstract

    Paris Agreement and the decisions of Paris climate conference require parties to communicate their long-term low emission development strategy. This paper analyses the long-term strategies of 12 countries in terms of legal effectiveness,target strength,and emission reduction pathways of greenhouse gas emission sectors. Generally speaking,the European countries have better legislative basis,stronger legal forces and relatively guaranteed enforcement. Legislation at the national level in the United States and Canada is relatively lagging behind,but policies and actions at the sub-national level are relatively positive. The high-profile participation of small island countries in global climate governance has sent a signal of increased action to the international community. From the point of view of emission reduction,developed countries generally put forward the quantitative emission reduction target as high as 80% by 2050,with detailed sector decomposition. Long term strategies of developing countries is weaker in terms of mitigation action in accord with their national circumstances. The conclusion is that the long-term strategy should be well integrated with the national conditions,capabilities and development priorities of each country,Early submission can set out a positive role and show the international community its positive attitude in combating climate change. On the basis of adhering to the position of developing countries,China should display the image of a responsible big country and strive to submit a long-term low-emission development strategy of greenhouse gases by 2020.

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    作者简介
    刘哲:刘哲,博士,副研究员,生态环境部环境与经济政策研究中心副研究员,研究领域为气候变化与环境政策。
    杨雅茹:杨雅茹,硕士,国家应对气候变化国际合作和战略研究中心研究人员,研究领域为低碳经济。
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